Hochul Polling

Slingshot’s polling practice, led by partner Evan Roth Smith, conducted polling of the New York Governor’s race between Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin that “turned out to be one of the most accurate polls taken in the gubernatorial race’s final weeks,” correctly predicting both Hochul’s six-point margin of victory and Zeldin’s 30% vote share in New York City.

Slingshot’s polling proved more accurate than several leading national pollsters including YouGov, Data for Progress, and Civiqs, all of whom dramatically overestimated Hochul’s margin of victory and missed the final result by more than their margins of error. Slingshot was more accurate than either the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics polling averages.

The Most Accurate Poll in New York

Our polling was cited extensively in now-validated early reporting that “the tight top-of-the-ticket race is rubbing off on the state’s House districts [...] Democrats are forking money into races that should be safe bets.” While Slingshot typically conducts private polling for clients rather than wide-release public polls, the alarming situation around the New York governor’s race prompted us to conduct a rare self-sponsored poll for public distribution. We’re glad that our poll’s accurate prediction in this close race played a part in encouraging more active Democratic campaigning during the final weeks of the election.