Slingshot Polling featured in The Narrative Wars, shows Mamdani in driver’s seat

Slingshot founding partner Evan Roth Smith gave Michael Lange of The Narrative Wars a look at the latest polling of the New York mayoral race. Zohran Mamdani doesn’t quite have a majority, but his opponents are fractured and unpopular, making him the overwhelming favorite for November.

“However, well-respected pollster (and friend of the program) Evan Roth Smith of Slingshot Strategies generously shared some results from his five-way General Election survey, the first independent poll of the race.”

“One important caveat, Evan’s poll did not list party affiliation for each respective candidate, which would have undoubtedly aided Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani (and, to a lesser extent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa). Nonetheless, the lack of a (D) identification next to Mamdani’s name makes the forthcoming numbers all the more impressive.”

“Overall, Mamdani (35%) led Cuomo (25%) by ten-percent, while both Curtis Sliwa (14%) and Eric Adams (11%) noticeably trailed. The Democratic nominee was buoyed by an advantage with every racial group: Whites (+9), Blacks (+3), Latinos (+21), and Asians (+17). Mamdani easily wins Democratic voters polled in the survey compared to Cuomo (47% vs. 30%); in addition to besting the field by double-digits among Independent voters (32%), an oft-misunderstood electorate that skews relatively young. Of those who send their children to public school, Mamdani leads by thirteen percent. Among voters aged 18-44, the democratic socialist led by thirty-one percent (Cuomo leads both ages 45-64 and 65+), more evidence the Generation Gap will endure (and potentially widen) through November.”

“Nonetheless, using both the results of Evan’s poll coupled with my own intuition, I want to preview the many scenarios that potentially await us in the coming months — and whether any permutation would be enough to make Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani sweat out the result.”

Read the full article here.